The Longest War of the 21st Century
The United States and Russia negotiate about limitation of the arms race, which is now even more obvious. Central-European media threat the public with the "New Yalta" slogan, at the same time promising the inevitable victory of the only right Euro-Atlantic system. Meanwhile, the geopolitical and geostrategic situation is more complex and much more dangerous, not only for the whole of Europe, being something different than simple new demarcation of spheres of influence between the powers.
The Cold War has always been closest to the transition to a hot one when it comes to strategic balance of power measured by the deployment and range of missile systems. This was the case when in 1962 the Soviet Union reverted an attempt to locate American missiles in Turkey, what is known at misleading name of the Cuban Crisis. That follows in 1980s, when the symbols of Reagan’s and Thatcher’s aggressive imperialism were Pershings, Tomahawks and the Trident System (still continued by UK). Whenever war hawks prevail in the Euro-Atlantic zone - it can be seen in the translocation of offensive combat systems, moving closer and closer to the borders of the Russian Federation.
In practice, since Donald Trump's anti-Chinese policy killed the INF (ДРСМД) – there is no effective international regulation of the ongoing, though not officially announced, arms race between the US and the rest of the world. Of course, a very one-sided race, because although no one denies the modernity and training of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the power of the People's Liberation Army – these are the Americans, however, who spend more ($778 billion) on armaments than the next eleven countries on this list combined, eight of which are American allies and dependent countries. This massive dependence of US policy on the interests of the military-industrial complex, unchanged since the Cold War, always leaves a margin of concern whether such a huge arsenal will tempt someone to finally be used. Even just to make some space for new purchases…
Disarmament or at least non-proliferation negotiations are therefore a necessity, as urgent as during the most dangerous crises of the two-Blocks era. In the 1950s example of such an initiative was the Rapacki Plan. The Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adam Rapacki, proposed establishing of a nuclear-free zone in Central Europe, encompassing the territories of both Blocks, i.e. both German states, Poland and Czechoslovakia. Despite support from Moscow, Prague and East Berlin, as well as a very sympathetic reception by anti-war Western circles – this proposal failed facing the resistance of Atlantic militarists. However, it would certainly be worth referring to it today by creating such a zone excluded from the relocation of missile systems, including at least Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Scandinavia and the Baltic states. Depending on a willingness of interested states, similar treaties could also be signed in Asia and other regions of the World. Otherwise, we are threatened with a permanent state of universal hybrid war – with the possibility of turning into a full-blown global conflict at any time.
Will Russians invade Ukraine? I invite them to dinner!
Of course, the USA, UK and NATO explain all their expansive actions in the East with „Russia's aggressive plans towards Ukraine”. We should add that these plans are so secret and diabolical that thanks to the Western media and politicians, people talk about them over a beer in a pub and at family lunches. They are so obvious and known to everyone... It is probably not difficult to guess that if something is the subject of such a clear and intrusive propaganda campaign – we can be absolutely sure that there is no relation to reality. I have repeated many times, for the past seven years, when almost every day after the Euromaidan the Russian invasion into Ukraine was foretold: if only Russia wants that, after the morning roll call in Rostov, its soldiers will have lunch in Kharkiv, dinner in Kiev, and still have enough time for afternoon tea in Lviv cafes. And for supper I invite them to the present Polish-Ukrainian border, near which I live...
Unfortunately, however, Russia has not attacked – because the Russians are not responsible for solving other nations’ problems. Since we know more about the first years of People's Republics in Donbas, the more we read and hear about the moderating role of Russia, which has tried to stop the escalation of the conflict. This is not the place to judge whether it was right to grab the hands of Donbas field commanders, not letting them to go too far to the west. The fact is, however, that it was so. Russia could have liberated all of Ukraine (or conquered it if someone prefer that) a long time ago, and no one, least the West, could do anything about it. Why then should it suddenly change politics and interfere with all this Ukrainian mess, especially announcing own entrance with so long run-up? Just to help Western war hawks, gunmakers and the funny Kiev cacique who dreams of war to save his own stool?
Anyway, even in the Western media we can hear trumpets to retreat now. After several months of continuous counting, how many thousands of Russian tanks are about to break into a peaceful Ukraine – suddenly we can hear and read that it was probably... “Putin's bluff” and possibly Russia does not want to invade anyone. For readers experienced in reading between the lines – the change of the message is therefore clear: “We will never admit we lied, but now we can say that there will be no war”. Well, looking at Ukraine's impressive war budget (323 billion hryvnias, over 11 billion dollars!) it should be noted that the “Russo-Ukrainian war” has already fulfilled some of its tasks. The cash that the West “lends” to Kiev returns to the West in the form of military purchases, the business is booming, and the military-industrial complex with the media on its services counts profits.
For the New International Order
Therefore, there is no doubt that the period of World unipolarity has come to an end, but the new international order has not yet been clearly shaped. All these collisions and conflicts are absolutely natural way of establishing new rules and defining new spheres of influence. The descending empires often struggle with such problems, especially previously hiding and denying own weakness and decay. The United States simply must put on mean face, flex muscles and show the longest missiles. This is how they understand their prestige, these are their internal needs, and this is how they want to guarantee the subordination of the remaining vassals. Escaping the crisis with a recent expansion attempt, distracting rivals, delaying the inevitable – these are normal tactical tricks. Unfortunately, trying to displace reality by throwing everything on one card and creating a global war threat – that is also an option on the table. And that is no secret that there are American circles that would not hesitate to set the World on fire believing that “all-or-nothing” and “if not us – no one!”.
Of course, however, there are also pragmatists, as well as that part of financial capital sceptical about the policies implemented by states, pointing out that these are large corporations, not the great powers, which became the real subjects of the international order. These great interests will decide WAR or PEACE and so far (as we can see) the arguments are weighed. Not only between Washington and Moscow, but even more between Wall Street, City and Beijing/Shanghai.
And as far poor Ukraine concerned… Well, it will be the subject of a conflict between the West and Russia as long as there is still something to be stolen left. Although organized plunder has been going on practically from the first moments after the Euromaidan – Ukraine is still potentially a very rich country. Do we not remember how during the previous World War the Germans even uprooted black soils and took them away by trains? If the Ukrainians themselves do nothing about it, their country will only be left to itself when the last train with their resources leaves for the West. And even then, Ukraine will be assigned the role of a battlefield, including atomic one.
As we know, Zelensky's team has already legalised privatisation of land, privileging large foreign property, previously hidden in the form of leases and joint ventures. In 2022 there is going to be a bargain with 700 of the 3,500 remaining state-owned enterprises, especially the power industry, mining and metallurgical one. This a reason why Zelensky announced his cabaret “war with the oligarchs” (that means with himself?) – so no one would prevent Western capital from grazing on Ukrainian wealth. To consume it in peace – capital must threat with war. That is the whole secret of “Russian aggression plans against Ukraine”…
There will be no other end of the World
So, is the threat of global conflict just a kind of marketing trick? Not exactly or probably not only. A few years ago, there was quite popular theory that World War 3 had already begun, but we do not see all its symptoms yet. The shortage of more dramatic moments made sceptics question this hypothesis – after all better, worse, but we live somehow. The international situation is quite normal, although from crisis to crisis and overall we can focus on other issues, from celebrities trough climate to pandemic. The problem is that the prophets of World War 3 were right. Only, as in the poem by the Polish-Lithuanian poet Czesław Miłosz about the end of the World that no one noticed – perhaps there will be no more global war other than a permanently hybrid war. And the inhabitants of not infected parts of the World will doubt if it is real at all. But an endless war for the New World Order will spread everywhere on more and more fronts.
The war we already know from Donbas, Syria, Yemen, Transcaucasia, now also Kazakhstan, soon maybe Taiwan, Ukraine or Baltic States. But also many, many other conflicts in which enemies from one theatre of operations will often and suddenly become tactical allies elsewhere. This can be a war not only between states, because we already know that it is possible to fight almost entirely with private capital, only hiring states to carry out heavier air strikes. Finally, it is a war in which whole cities can disappear under bombs and missiles, as it has been till now. But also the one in which some silent killer will fly through a window and this child's-toy-like thing will win the decisive battle.
And most of us, if we only have a bit of luck – might never even notice...